The increase in discount is a consequence of heightened sanctions risks at the end of October when the United States imposed restrictions on the two largest Russian oil companies. Overall, this trend is typical for the oil market: the Urals discount to Brent consistently rises in the first few weeks and months following the tightening of sanctions. This was evident, for instance, in the second quarter of 2022, when the EU's decision to implement an embargo on maritime shipments of oil from Russia temporarily pushed the discount above $30 per barrel. ESPO crude oil, which is closer in its physical and chemical characteristics to Brent and other low-sulfur grades, generally commanded a premium over Urals in the spot market even before 2022. Experience shows that investors gradually adapt to new levels of sanctions risk, meaning the discount is likely to begin narrowing no later than early 2026. Source: Vedomosti