Analysis of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, December 4, 2025: Putin's Visit to India, Macron's Visit to China, Brazil's GDP, US Unemployment Claims, Canadian PMI, and Global Company Reports
Thursday promises a diverse agenda for investors in global markets. Global stock indices—from the American S&P 500 and Japan's Nikkei 225 to Europe's Euro Stoxx 50 and Russia's MOEX index—are hovering near recent highs amid signs of slowing inflation and soft signals from central banks. The focus now shifts to fresh economic events and company reports: high-level diplomatic visits in Asia, key macroeconomic data (Brazil's GDP, US employment statistics, PMI index in Canada), as well as financial results from several major companies. Investors will need to reconcile these factors with market dynamics: strong growth and employment figures will support risk appetite, while negative surprises could increase volatility.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 00:30 — USA: Weekly API report on oil inventories.
- 13:00 — Eurozone: Retail Sales (October).
- 15:00 — Brazil: GDP for Q3 2025.
- 16:30 — USA: Initial claims for unemployment benefits (week).
- 18:00 — Canada: Ivey PMI Business Activity Index (November).
Asia
- Asian markets will not receive significant new statistics on this day, so regional indices (such as Japan's Nikkei 225 and China's Shanghai Composite) will look to external signals. Investor sentiment in Asia largely depends on global trends and news, and the absence of domestic data makes them more sensitive to events in the US and Europe.
- Force Majeure: French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to China continues (December 3-5). Meetings in Beijing aimed at strengthening trade and economic cooperation between the EU and China are taking place. Although no groundbreaking agreements are expected, the mere fact of dialogue between two major economies underscores the geopolitical significance of China. For Asian financial markets, the direct impact of these negotiations will be neutral; however, any statements resulting from the visit could temporarily increase volatility in certain sectors (such as aviation or technology if relevant deals are discussed).
Europe
- The Eurozone will release retail sales data for October (13:00 MSK). The indicator is expected to remain close to neutral after a slight decline in September. The state of consumer demand is an important indicator of economic health in Europe: an unexpected drop in sales would heighten concerns about economic slowdown, while growth above expectations will support European equities and the euro.
- European markets, in general, will carry out the day without major internal disruptions and will primarily assess external factors. Focus will be on the corporate reports of individual companies: for instance, German metallurgical company Aurubis will publish financial results, and British retailer Frasers Group will report on operational successes. These news items could drive the corresponding stocks but will have limited impact on the broader European market. The Euro Stoxx 50 index maintains relatively stable dynamics, reacting mainly to overall signals concerning the global economy and monetary policy.
Russia
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is beginning an official visit to India (December 4-5). Talks with Indian leadership will focus on deepening trade ties, energy cooperation (including possible new agreements for oil and gas supplies), and joint investment projects. Signing major contracts—such as in the defense industry or raw materials—could strengthen the positions of Russian corporations in these sectors in the long term. However, the short-term impact of this visit on the Russian stock market is expected to be limited, serving as more of a strategic factor than an immediate market driver.
- No new macro data is expected in the Russian domestic market on Thursday, following the release of November inflation data the day before. The corporate earnings season on the MOEX is nearing completion, with most major issuers having already disclosed their third-quarter results. In the absence of fresh domestic triggers, investors will pay attention to the external backdrop: oil prices, movements in global markets, and exchange rate factors. The Russian ruble remains relatively stable at around 78 per dollar, supported by export revenues and currency interventions from the Ministry of Finance.
USA and Americas
- The focus in the USA will be on labor market conditions. Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits (16:30 MSK) will serve as a leading indicator ahead of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. A noticeable decline in new claims will confirm the resilience of the labor market, which may enhance expectations for a tighter Fed policy (pressuring bonds and supporting the dollar). Conversely, an increase in claims will signal cooling in the economy and weaken arguments for rate hikes, which would be positively perceived by stock indices.
- In Latin America, a key release will be Brazil's GDP for Q3. Moderate growth is expected for the region's largest economy, fueled by steady domestic demand and raw material exports. Strong data will bolster investor confidence in emerging market prospects and support the Brazilian Bovespa index, while weak GDP could trigger capital reallocation towards safer assets. Additionally, at 18:00 MSK, the Ivey PMI Business Activity Index in Canada will be released: this indicator will reflect the state of Canadian business in November. A PMI increase above 50 points will indicate economic expansion and could strengthen the Canadian dollar, while a decline in the index will amplify discussions about possible stimulus from the Bank of Canada.
- Corporate earnings (USA and Canada): A number of large companies will publish financial results, which may lead to increased volatility in individual stocks. Before the opening of American exchanges, quarterly reports from leading Canadian banks (Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, CIBC) and one of the largest US retailers, Kroger, will be disclosed. After market close, reports will be released from technology giant Hewlett Packard Enterprise, cosmetics store chain Ulta Beauty, discount retailer Dollar General, electronic document workflow software developer DocuSign, and others. If the results exceed expectations, the corresponding stocks may surge, setting a positive tone for the sector overall (from finance to consumer goods). Conversely, disappointing results could trigger sell-offs in specific segments and restrain the growth of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices.
Commodities and Currencies
- The oil market is monitoring data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) regarding crude oil inventories in the USA, released overnight. Preliminary estimates suggest a decline in commercial inventories amid increased fuel consumption during holiday transport. If the actual drop in inventories exceeds expectations, Brent and WTI prices will receive additional upward momentum. Conversely, an increase in inventories or a less significant reduction could halt the price rally. Additionally, traders are assessing the outcomes of the recent OPEC+ meeting and signals regarding future production, which impact medium-term expectations in the oil market.
- Commodity markets are maintaining relative balance overall. Industrial metals are trading slightly higher, supported by recovering demand in China, while precious metals are consolidating after recent gains. The currency market reflects the easing rhetoric from the Fed: the US dollar index is declining to recent lows, allowing emerging market currencies and commodity currencies (such as the Canadian dollar) to perform more confidently. The euro and pound are holding steady against the dollar, receiving support from local data. Meanwhile, the Russian ruble remains relatively stable, balancing the influence of recent oil price increases and domestic factors. Investors are closely monitoring trends in the currency market to promptly assess risks for their international portfolios.
What to Watch for Investors
- US Labor Market Data: The new claims for unemployment benefits will provide an early signal regarding the state of the economy ahead of the official employment report. A sharp reduction in claims will enhance expectations for economic growth and could shake up bond yields, whereas an increase in claims will support arguments for a possible easing of Fed policy.
- Quarterly Reports of Market Leaders: The financial results of companies such as Kroger, Dollar General, HPE, and Canada’s largest banks represent the health of several sectors—from consumer demand to the banking system. It is crucial for investors to compare reported figures with forecasts: exceeding expectations may push up stocks in these sectors, while weak reports could lead to declines and a reevaluation of sector estimates.
- Oil Market Situation: The dynamics of oil prices following the API inventory report will provide hints for the oil and gas sector. A significant reduction in inventories and subsequent price increases will improve sentiment in the energy segment and support export-oriented markets (including Russia), while an unexpected rise in inventories could temporarily weaken oil futures and related company stocks.
